As 2024 draws to a close, it is a very mixed picture, the sales market, though, remains resilient and some of the data is showing signs of real growth.

Zoopla is reporting that, despite affordability pressures, house prices rose by1.0% over the last 12 months. They also report the supply of properties for sale is continuing to improve, with buyer choice now at its highest level since 2014. However, the portal warns that the increase in supply means that the market is becoming more price sensitive and so sellers need to adjust their expectations to secure deals.

Nationwide’s figures, on the other hand, show house prices grew by as much as 1.2% last month alone – their fastest rate for November for two years. Annually, they were up by 3.7% and mortgage approvals are approaching pre-pandemic levels, suggesting underlying market strength. Halifax’s prices were up by a very similar 1.3% and 4.8% year-on-year.

Rightmove’s figures, in contrast, show a monthly fall of 1.2% and relatively sluggish annual growth of 1.2%. There are also some marked variations across the country, with northern regions generally outperforming the southern ones in terms of both activity and price growth. The North East had the highest annual rise at 4.2% and London came bottom at -0.8%. However, the differences between the boroughs in the Capital are even greater than they are for the regions, with over a 10% swing between top and bottom. Merton’s prices, for example, have risen by 7.2% over the last twelve months, whereas Richmond’s have fallen by 3.1%.

What all the indices do agree on is that it’s first-time buyers that are currently some of the most active as they rush to beat the change in stamp duty, whose threshold will come down from £425,000 to £300,000 on April 1st next year.

This month’s mixed data is not unexpected in a market that is coming back to life after an election, a gloomy budget and still adjusting to higher mortgage costs.

HOUSE PRICES AND STATISTICS

November’s indices are very mixed but should settle into a more discernible pattern in the New Year.

Nationwide: Nov: Avge. price £268,144. Monthly change +1.2%. Annual change +3.7%
Halifax: Nov: Avge. price £298,083. Monthly change +1.3%. Annual change +4.8%
Land Registry: Sept: Avge. price £291,828. Monthly change -0.3%. Annual change +2.9%
Zoopla: Oct: Avge. price £267,200. Annual change +1.0%
Rightmove: Nov: Avge. price £366,592. Monthly change -1.4%. Annual change +1.2%

RENTAL MARKET

The rental market has reached something of a turning point as growth moderates significantly. HomeLet’s latest data shows average UK rents at £1,307 per month, but annual growth has slowed to 2.2% – the lowest rate since 2021.

In London, rents now stand at £2,151 per month – up just 1.1% from last year – a dramatic fall from the 8.7% growth recorded 12 months ago. There are, as with sales, wide regional variations, with West Midland’s annual rise the biggest at 8.4%.

In a development that will be welcomed by many, Zoopla says the supply-demand imbalance is finally showing signs of improving, with letting agents reporting 12% more properties available compared to last year. However, this is still nearly a fifth below pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, demand has normalised, coming down by 29% from last year’s peak but still running 31% above pre-pandemic levels.

Looking ahead, rents are forecast to rise by 4% in 2025, with stronger growth expected in more affordable areas whilst major cities face increasing affordability constraints. The cumulative impact of recent rises – adding £3,240 to average annual costs since 2021 – continue to shape market dynamics, with almost 30% of private renters now receiving rental support through Universal Credit